* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/06/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 45 50 57 63 66 64 59 54 50 42 V (KT) LAND 30 37 43 48 52 59 66 68 66 61 56 42 32 SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 16 11 10 4 3 8 15 16 24 27 42 SHEAR DIR 86 91 99 110 106 54 34 301 283 285 256 240 228 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.6 30.9 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 6 500-300 MB RH 72 66 59 60 60 50 47 37 38 37 34 35 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -4 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 1 5 -6 850 MB VORT 85 68 64 52 45 31 47 26 23 35 78 39 47 LAND (KM) -7 7 4 14 41 96 199 237 141 42 104 -89 -326 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.2 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.7 23.5 24.5 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.1 104.6 105.1 105.6 106.6 107.6 108.6 109.3 109.6 108.4 106.5 104.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 437 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 72 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 33. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 27. 31. 31. 27. 23. 18. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 20. 27. 33. 36. 34. 29. 24. 20. 12. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/06/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.20 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.95 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 4.78 Prob of RI= 51.3% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)