* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/06/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 47 53 55 55 51 45 38 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 28 38 36 30 33 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 8 4 2 9 16 22 22 34 31 36 41 SHEAR DIR 360 123 181 217 147 202 217 226 228 238 244 253 250 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.0 26.6 24.2 22.3 20.3 16.9 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 152 148 146 148 142 125 104 93 85 77 72 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 65 64 62 59 61 64 54 44 38 36 43 51 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -8 0 3 6 6 0 2 7 15 7 23 10 850 MB VORT 100 111 127 117 113 125 114 85 77 28 21 4 56 LAND (KM) 60 82 150 186 74 -47 90 -26 -4 5 -73 -168 -149 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.2 24.1 25.3 26.5 29.3 32.0 34.7 37.0 39.2 41.3 43.3 45.1 LONG(DEG W) 85.2 84.6 83.9 83.5 83.0 81.6 79.6 77.6 76.0 74.6 73.8 72.8 70.6 HEAT CONTENT 89 82 53 32 14 9999 15 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 565 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -3 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 24. 26. 27. 25. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -21. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 19. 27. 34. 36. 37. 32. 26. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 33. 35. 35. 31. 25. 18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/06/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.85 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.16 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.66 Prob of RI= 23.9% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)