* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/06/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 49 52 54 56 57 57 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 49 52 54 56 57 57 57 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 9 9 12 12 14 19 17 18 16 17 26 SHEAR DIR 278 261 231 247 241 225 231 245 250 272 307 316 339 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 165 164 155 152 152 154 155 155 155 159 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 500-300 MB RH 60 56 60 62 65 62 58 57 56 48 53 51 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 2 5 5 5 6 8 7 1 0 -2 -6 -4 850 MB VORT -15 -31 -42 -54 -60 -55 -56 -59 -59 -68 -54 -66 -54 LAND (KM) 1133 1037 962 941 929 966 1035 1115 1137 1090 1044 994 918 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 9.3 9.9 10.6 11.3 12.8 14.1 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 42.0 43.4 44.8 45.9 47.0 48.6 49.9 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0 56.3 HEAT CONTENT 51 58 69 71 71 57 59 74 86 84 85 86 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 446 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 62 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 30. 31. 33. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/06/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 138.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.90 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.74 Scaled RI index= 5.60 Prob of RI= 57.0% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)