* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/06/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 44 48 54 59 61 59 55 52 49 45 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 44 48 54 59 61 59 55 52 49 45 SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 17 15 8 4 3 4 11 4 6 11 11 SHEAR DIR 81 87 88 94 96 87 324 312 301 286 236 194 198 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 163 161 157 154 151 149 148 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 6 5 7 5 6 5 5 4 6 5 500-300 MB RH 70 63 61 61 58 48 43 40 38 35 31 27 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 -4 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 -6 -3 0 0 850 MB VORT 74 60 48 43 33 36 37 24 8 7 16 14 5 LAND (KM) 68 76 68 81 107 177 272 332 300 292 318 340 388 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.6 105.1 105.6 106.0 107.1 108.2 109.2 110.2 110.9 111.5 111.9 112.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 292/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 437 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 65 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 25. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 25. 25. 23. 20. 17. 14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 14. 18. 24. 29. 31. 29. 25. 22. 19. 15. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/06/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.15 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.31 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 4.84 Prob of RI= 54.3% is 4.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)