* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/06/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 50 58 62 62 60 54 46 39 V (KT) LAND 25 32 36 40 36 40 48 52 52 50 44 36 27 SHEAR (KTS) 1 3 3 3 3 7 13 16 23 28 30 33 45 SHEAR DIR 324 194 201 193 234 257 245 255 234 255 249 259 256 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 27.8 26.0 24.4 22.5 19.5 14.4 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 155 151 149 149 149 139 119 106 94 83 73 72 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 9 9 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 62 62 60 61 62 56 47 34 31 35 44 53 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 0 1 2 6 0 3 6 0 10 12 7 10 850 MB VORT 97 120 100 108 137 94 104 42 28 -6 -26 -38 0 LAND (KM) -9 69 158 65 -53 112 128 24 132 150 26 91 -29 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.5 24.4 25.8 27.1 30.0 32.8 35.1 37.2 39.1 41.2 43.0 44.2 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 83.5 82.9 82.4 81.8 80.1 77.9 75.9 74.2 72.7 71.4 69.3 65.7 HEAT CONTENT 81 46 36 21 9999 40 24 1 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 60/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 557 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 24 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 33. 38. 39. 37. 30. 23. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 25. 33. 37. 37. 35. 29. 21. 14. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/06/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 2.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.99 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.84 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.18 Scaled RI index= 4.89 Prob of RI= 33.0% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)