* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/06/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 50 54 57 59 62 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 50 54 57 59 62 65 64 SHEAR (KTS) 9 5 4 5 4 8 11 16 15 14 10 12 19 SHEAR DIR 279 242 269 272 191 206 203 223 252 267 298 307 339 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 165 164 159 155 155 159 162 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 500-300 MB RH 59 62 63 63 61 61 56 49 45 44 48 50 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 4 5 4 4 6 4 0 -1 0 0 -2 850 MB VORT -31 -43 -59 -71 -64 -63 -52 -47 -40 -46 -39 -55 -77 LAND (KM) 1046 976 927 908 890 882 888 878 859 724 628 573 579 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.6 10.2 10.8 11.4 12.3 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.1 44.4 45.6 46.7 47.7 49.3 50.7 52.2 53.7 55.3 56.9 58.4 59.9 HEAT CONTENT 55 68 72 74 64 53 52 64 76 85 85 93 112 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 461 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 81 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 40. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 37. 40. 39. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/06/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.29 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.71 Scaled RI index= 5.06 Prob of RI= 38.8% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)