* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/06/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 47 49 48 47 45 42 39 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 47 49 48 47 45 42 39 SHEAR (KTS) 19 18 17 13 8 3 5 7 10 7 8 12 10 SHEAR DIR 89 90 93 95 82 111 327 300 306 254 222 204 201 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 163 163 161 157 155 154 151 149 149 148 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 500-300 MB RH 64 61 61 60 50 47 37 39 35 31 31 26 21 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 1 -1 850 MB VORT 52 44 43 35 23 41 26 22 2 14 15 12 11 LAND (KM) 132 132 145 175 206 284 382 355 335 342 331 340 373 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.4 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.5 106.0 106.5 107.0 108.1 109.2 110.1 110.9 111.6 111.9 111.9 112.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 404 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 58 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 29. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 17. 16. 14. 11. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 18. 17. 15. 12. 9. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/06/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.16 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.49 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 3.60 Prob of RI= 20.2% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)