* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/07/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 41 49 56 60 61 58 53 47 37 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 31 38 46 50 36 31 30 30 31 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 5 5 7 8 9 13 22 25 38 39 48 SHEAR DIR 193 200 220 225 220 231 235 229 231 231 242 244 254 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 27.9 26.6 24.6 22.5 20.5 17.0 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 152 149 149 149 149 141 125 107 94 86 77 72 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 9 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 63 60 62 59 61 53 40 36 32 38 47 52 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 2 2 2 0 0 -1 4 10 22 15 13 850 MB VORT 121 114 108 129 130 131 101 66 32 13 -2 11 -10 LAND (KM) 28 117 143 4 -82 171 170 28 -20 -17 -92 -139 3 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 24.0 24.9 26.2 27.5 30.1 32.4 34.5 36.6 38.9 41.3 43.1 43.8 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 83.2 82.6 81.9 81.2 79.5 77.8 76.8 76.1 75.6 74.6 72.5 69.5 HEAT CONTENT 70 31 37 18 9999 39 28 5 9999 0 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 60/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 566 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 26. 25. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 32. 36. 37. 35. 29. 23. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 16. 24. 31. 35. 36. 33. 28. 22. 13. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/07/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 4.89 Prob of RI= 32.9% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)