* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/07/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 39 42 44 43 43 42 41 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 39 42 44 43 43 42 41 SHEAR (KTS) 19 16 9 7 7 2 4 10 7 10 6 6 3 SHEAR DIR 89 97 98 100 126 331 302 305 305 282 258 276 110 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 162 158 156 154 152 155 155 151 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 5 7 500-300 MB RH 66 64 60 51 49 42 37 37 35 33 33 29 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -1 0 0 2 0 -1 0 -6 0 0 1 -1 850 MB VORT 40 38 24 12 26 35 16 27 29 32 32 29 50 LAND (KM) 103 110 137 171 204 293 375 344 314 303 265 311 381 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.2 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.2 105.7 106.2 106.7 107.2 108.3 109.2 110.1 110.9 111.4 111.0 110.8 111.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 417 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 32 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 25. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 11. 14. 16. 15. 15. 14. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 17. 19. 18. 18. 17. 16. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/07/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.36 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.32 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.19 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 3.55 Prob of RI= 19.3% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)