* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/07/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 40 44 45 44 41 37 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 40 44 45 44 31 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 2 3 3 2 9 10 14 21 27 37 36 37 SHEAR DIR 97 81 31 62 335 337 320 280 268 261 254 261 258 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 10 11 10 8 500-300 MB RH 61 58 46 44 44 37 35 31 34 33 33 33 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 4 4 13 12 850 MB VORT 44 35 13 20 38 23 27 16 52 33 44 30 3 LAND (KM) 111 117 123 135 147 170 187 193 140 0 -171 -364 -429 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.9 22.9 23.9 25.1 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.2 106.4 106.7 106.9 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.0 106.1 104.8 103.4 101.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 426 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 33 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 32. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 3. -1. -7. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 16. 18. 16. 13. 9. 5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 19. 20. 19. 16. 12. 6. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/07/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.93 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 4.04 Prob of RI= 28.3% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)