* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TAMMY 10/07/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 28 33 35 38 36 34 32 29 20 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 28 28 32 35 29 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KTS) 21 22 25 22 22 18 11 21 17 25 23 27 28 SHEAR DIR 211 201 199 211 205 210 214 225 241 247 254 258 256 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.1 25.2 24.3 24.0 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 148 148 146 141 131 112 105 103 104 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 0 2 3 1 1 4 2 3 0 2 0 2 1 500-300 MB RH 48 43 37 36 31 30 30 24 26 28 33 32 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) -13 -18 -18 -8 -1 0 1 1 4 18 6 -3 -3 850 MB VORT 120 133 156 140 132 128 102 75 68 23 11 24 4 LAND (KM) 171 179 177 140 156 -82 105 62 -112 -257 -311 -217 -152 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.4 29.4 30.6 32.2 34.0 35.8 36.9 37.3 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 86.9 86.6 85.6 84.6 82.0 80.3 79.8 80.2 80.2 79.5 78.4 77.7 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 31 30 22 9999 30 16 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 215/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ -6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 892 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 25 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 16. 17. 19. 19. 18. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 14. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 16. 19. 17. 16. 13. 9. 3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 15. 18. 16. 14. 12. 9. 0. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TAMMY 10/07/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.50 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.25 Prob of RI= 14.8% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)