* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/07/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 54 62 69 74 78 83 86 84 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 54 62 69 74 78 83 86 84 SHEAR (KTS) 18 20 17 16 13 5 10 19 17 16 14 19 16 SHEAR DIR 281 279 279 289 299 315 318 333 319 298 278 254 260 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 154 154 154 149 143 141 142 142 141 142 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -56.6 -56.3 -56.2 -56.1 -55.2 -55.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 500-300 MB RH 57 59 61 62 65 53 49 45 46 44 48 45 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 5 3 11 5 7 5 -7 -5 -12 -19 -16 -2 850 MB VORT 91 87 81 76 84 44 48 72 93 121 112 122 85 LAND (KM) 1065 1020 980 963 956 955 969 1009 1029 900 747 679 669 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.1 23.4 24.0 24.6 25.8 26.8 27.7 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 56.6 57.3 58.0 58.7 59.4 61.1 63.1 65.2 67.5 69.6 71.6 72.9 73.7 HEAT CONTENT 45 48 49 41 39 37 31 20 7 18 16 17 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 779 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 30. 39. 46. 50. 55. 59. 62. 61. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 37. 44. 49. 53. 58. 61. 59. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/07/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 127.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 3.90 Prob of RI= 10.6% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)