* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/07/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 47 51 52 50 46 43 37 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 47 51 52 40 31 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 5 3 3 2 6 8 10 16 23 28 37 30 34 SHEAR DIR 89 40 62 335 330 341 308 271 267 257 256 259 262 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 8 6 10 7 12 9 13 6 500-300 MB RH 56 47 44 44 41 38 34 34 33 33 36 39 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 11 18 14 850 MB VORT 36 15 22 40 37 18 29 36 48 39 39 23 -3 LAND (KM) 141 146 151 166 184 203 218 204 104 -74 -260 -444 -325 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.7 20.0 20.5 21.2 22.1 23.1 24.1 24.9 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.6 106.8 107.1 107.3 107.6 107.8 107.5 106.7 105.3 103.8 102.2 100.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 530 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 7 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 32. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 2. -3. -7. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 22. 24. 23. 19. 16. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 22. 26. 27. 25. 21. 18. 12. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/07/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 4.66 Prob of RI= 46.0% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)