* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/07/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 53 60 66 71 74 78 80 79 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 53 60 66 71 74 78 80 79 SHEAR (KTS) 19 17 17 13 11 13 15 18 10 15 14 18 11 SHEAR DIR 278 274 290 304 328 353 354 348 314 286 285 287 272 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 154 152 148 142 142 143 143 143 143 146 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -56.4 -56.1 -56.3 -55.6 -54.7 -53.9 -53.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 500-300 MB RH 57 62 63 62 56 48 41 42 48 46 39 35 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) 11 10 8 2 1 1 -7 -16 -13 -23 -14 0 -15 850 MB VORT 73 71 69 76 53 41 44 68 105 95 122 92 77 LAND (KM) 1099 1060 1031 1012 1003 1000 1014 983 940 822 766 706 655 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.6 25.1 25.7 26.2 27.1 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.4 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 58.0 58.9 59.9 60.9 63.1 65.3 67.6 69.6 71.4 72.5 73.1 73.5 HEAT CONTENT 41 38 39 39 36 25 19 10 20 20 19 20 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 708 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 29. 36. 42. 47. 51. 54. 56. 56. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 28. 35. 41. 46. 49. 53. 55. 54. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/07/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 127.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.20 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.27 Scaled RI index= 4.02 Prob of RI= 12.1% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)