* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/07/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 48 53 55 53 49 44 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 48 53 55 37 30 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 3 4 2 3 6 7 10 17 22 33 29 32 30 SHEAR DIR 115 107 53 352 347 313 280 253 250 250 267 266 268 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.3 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 7 8 500-300 MB RH 47 43 43 40 32 34 31 29 33 31 34 36 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 5 6 18 0 -14 850 MB VORT 19 25 43 42 32 42 29 66 49 46 20 1 -12 LAND (KM) 115 129 149 179 209 249 248 175 37 -163 -364 -412 -338 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.6 23.8 25.0 25.8 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 106.9 107.1 107.4 107.7 108.1 108.0 107.3 106.3 104.8 103.3 101.6 100.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 597 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 32. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 2. -2. -6. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 25. 24. 20. 16. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 28. 30. 28. 24. 19. 13. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/07/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 30.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.96 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.24 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 4.75 Prob of RI= 49.8% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)