* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/08/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 40 41 42 41 40 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 40 41 42 41 40 39 SHEAR (KTS) 14 17 11 11 17 16 13 13 17 22 19 26 26 SHEAR DIR 238 253 246 216 237 285 322 324 343 1 19 24 44 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 152 152 152 154 155 155 157 159 162 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 12 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 54 56 57 55 50 58 58 60 55 56 48 50 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 6 2 1 3 1 0 -1 0 -3 -1 0 -6 850 MB VORT -63 -78 -81 -78 -68 -59 -87 -95 -77 -67 -83 -74 -52 LAND (KM) 947 968 991 1018 1053 1063 994 1000 1000 928 780 622 475 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.5 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.3 50.0 50.7 51.3 52.5 53.9 54.8 55.7 56.9 58.3 59.8 61.2 HEAT CONTENT 56 54 57 63 72 78 83 83 84 82 82 86 96 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 532 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. -23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 14. 14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. 15. 14. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/08/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.29 Scaled RI index= 4.55 Prob of RI= 20.7% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)