* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/08/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 46 50 55 60 64 66 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 46 50 55 60 64 66 68 68 SHEAR (KTS) 18 14 13 9 10 19 16 7 9 8 11 15 11 SHEAR DIR 267 259 275 297 353 29 6 337 278 261 256 260 217 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 151 149 145 134 133 134 135 134 137 139 143 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.5 -56.5 -55.8 -54.7 -53.8 -52.4 -52.8 -51.9 -51.7 -50.8 -51.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 9 8 10 500-300 MB RH 59 61 61 53 46 40 33 37 35 38 36 34 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 6 4 -1 4 0 -13 -15 -20 -17 0 -3 -6 850 MB VORT 71 74 74 47 16 -23 23 38 81 100 102 120 119 LAND (KM) 1129 1130 1143 1153 1176 1230 1147 881 678 534 511 576 697 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.6 26.3 27.1 27.9 29.2 30.1 30.8 31.1 31.2 30.8 30.0 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.3 58.0 58.7 59.7 60.7 62.9 65.4 68.2 70.7 72.7 73.8 74.1 73.3 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 31 25 18 9 8 11 10 15 19 16 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 564 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 26. 30. 36. 40. 43. 44. 45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 25. 30. 35. 39. 41. 43. 43. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/08/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.18 Scaled RI index= 3.91 Prob of RI= 10.6% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)