* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/08/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 49 50 46 42 34 25 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 49 50 36 30 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 6 2 1 4 1 4 11 16 26 33 30 40 45 SHEAR DIR 127 119 333 7 21 296 258 251 243 258 265 273 262 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.8 31.1 31.0 30.9 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 7 5 7 5 8 5 7 3 5 500-300 MB RH 44 42 38 31 34 31 29 26 26 21 23 20 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 18 1 -14 0 850 MB VORT 18 35 32 18 16 28 33 46 52 59 46 44 18 LAND (KM) 136 164 192 222 252 308 220 141 75 -119 -232 -245 -295 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.4 21.2 22.2 23.7 25.2 26.2 26.8 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.2 107.5 107.8 108.1 108.7 108.9 108.7 107.9 106.8 106.2 106.5 107.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 569 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -4 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 32. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 7. 2. -2. -8. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 21. 18. 14. 6. -2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 24. 25. 21. 17. 9. 0. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/08/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 2.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.94 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.33 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.15 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 4.47 Prob of RI= 36.9% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)