* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/08/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 49 52 53 53 52 49 44 39 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 49 52 53 53 52 49 44 39 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 20 23 27 26 15 12 15 24 33 39 35 SHEAR DIR 300 334 15 35 33 30 17 317 282 245 244 248 245 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.0 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 135 133 131 131 131 127 122 120 117 110 108 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -55.9 -54.8 -54.4 -54.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.2 -51.3 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 6 4 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 54 51 40 41 38 32 38 42 43 41 42 44 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 0 3 4 0 -9 -6 -10 9 5 0 0 -8 850 MB VORT 52 17 -6 -18 -36 -12 -30 -15 5 70 84 101 120 LAND (KM) 1277 1276 1289 1296 1315 1095 807 576 429 444 422 380 396 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.4 29.0 29.5 30.0 31.0 32.2 33.3 34.7 36.3 37.6 38.5 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 58.5 59.6 60.6 61.8 62.9 65.4 68.1 70.2 71.3 70.8 69.8 68.8 67.5 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 11 7 9 8 11 11 4 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 13 CX,CY: -3/ 12 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 515 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 18. 19. 18. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. 21. 16. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 22. 19. 14. 9. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/08/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.73 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.48 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.45 Scaled RI index= 4.06 Prob of RI= 12.5% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)