* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/08/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 32 33 32 32 30 30 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 32 33 32 32 30 30 31 SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 23 25 26 18 18 27 27 25 26 21 14 SHEAR DIR 226 222 229 251 271 290 298 314 341 11 30 52 61 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 154 154 154 152 152 154 154 155 157 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 53 51 52 53 61 67 67 65 59 55 50 45 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 7 7 6 0 -3 3 2 -5 -5 0 3 9 850 MB VORT -80 -81 -73 -72 -63 -60 -61 -51 -65 -49 -44 -49 -36 LAND (KM) 1030 1064 1105 1147 1130 1129 1174 1170 1101 1024 935 861 793 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.7 19.0 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 49.8 50.4 51.0 51.6 52.2 53.3 54.1 54.7 55.5 56.4 57.5 58.5 59.7 HEAT CONTENT 60 64 75 79 84 82 79 65 59 53 55 55 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 601 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 6. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 5. 6. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/08/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 127.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.04 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 4.05 Prob of RI= 12.4% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)