* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/08/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 43 49 52 52 51 46 38 27 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 43 49 52 43 32 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 1 4 1 4 6 10 18 20 25 24 32 35 45 SHEAR DIR 239 4 129 242 274 250 255 250 266 274 283 264 268 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.6 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 8 7 9 7 10 4 8 2 500-300 MB RH 37 30 32 30 28 24 21 22 19 25 19 18 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 11 12 -13 -14 -4 26 850 MB VORT 20 11 17 28 21 19 28 17 37 17 16 5 -25 LAND (KM) 157 177 199 209 221 238 237 127 -44 -178 -200 -242 -345 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.7 21.0 21.5 22.6 23.9 24.9 25.3 26.4 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.4 107.6 107.7 107.8 107.9 107.9 107.5 106.5 105.7 105.8 106.2 106.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 663 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -37 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 33. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -11. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 16. 20. 20. 18. 12. 6. -4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 19. 22. 22. 21. 16. 8. -3. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/08/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 30.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.98 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.08 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 4.37 Prob of RI= 34.9% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)