* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-TWO 10/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 40 43 44 45 43 42 40 38 32 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 40 43 44 45 43 42 40 38 32 SHEAR (KTS) 7 19 24 27 28 18 8 13 21 30 33 37 39 SHEAR DIR 360 33 46 40 45 32 1 300 266 260 248 257 250 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.4 24.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 128 129 131 132 127 125 122 118 114 110 109 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.1 -54.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.2 -50.7 -50.3 -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 4 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 43 34 35 34 30 36 43 43 41 38 44 50 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 5 3 0 -3 0 -7 -5 10 -7 -5 0 -10 850 MB VORT 17 -7 -25 -36 -45 -50 -39 -28 39 73 90 66 66 LAND (KM) 1292 1320 1363 1242 1090 834 649 470 324 271 319 289 240 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.6 30.3 30.7 31.1 32.0 33.2 34.0 34.7 35.6 37.0 37.4 37.2 LONG(DEG W) 60.1 61.2 62.3 63.9 65.4 67.9 69.4 71.1 72.5 72.9 71.9 72.0 72.8 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 7 8 7 12 13 5 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 813 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -32 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 19. 18. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 15. 13. 12. 9. 4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 13. 12. 11. 8. 2. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-TWO 10/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.53 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.47 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 101.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.68 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 3.49 Prob of RI= 5.6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)