* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 34 33 32 32 33 33 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 34 33 32 32 33 33 SHEAR (KTS) 14 20 19 19 19 16 23 27 28 27 25 19 16 SHEAR DIR 225 232 250 269 291 301 323 334 3 19 18 29 38 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 154 155 157 157 157 159 159 159 157 152 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 52 49 50 58 60 65 65 64 62 56 54 45 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 7 5 2 -3 -3 -3 -3 2 -4 -3 1 0 850 MB VORT -77 -78 -75 -67 -60 -84 -43 -41 -56 -53 -22 -8 8 LAND (KM) 992 1012 1039 1044 1004 959 982 950 868 799 776 844 1030 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.8 18.0 19.0 19.9 20.7 21.7 23.1 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.1 51.8 52.5 53.2 54.6 55.7 56.7 57.6 58.5 59.2 59.4 58.8 HEAT CONTENT 58 65 73 77 80 87 84 79 65 55 54 48 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 656 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.61 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 4.07 Prob of RI= 12.6% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)