* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 10/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 50 51 53 55 55 55 55 55 52 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 49 50 51 53 55 43 36 32 33 32 SHEAR (KTS) 20 17 18 19 16 23 21 27 31 32 38 37 40 SHEAR DIR 304 312 298 314 321 319 301 267 251 227 215 213 241 SST (C) 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.4 23.2 22.5 21.3 18.1 19.4 17.1 16.7 13.5 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 101 100 100 99 98 94 89 79 82 77 76 72 71 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.5 -55.8 -56.0 -56.0 -56.4 -57.1 -56.8 -55.4 -55.6 -56.5 -55.1 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 46 44 40 39 35 42 58 63 62 66 66 63 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -1 -5 -12 -18 -48 -9 1 8 16 -1 26 0 850 MB VORT 151 129 119 86 66 57 87 74 72 64 87 99 39 LAND (KM) 892 895 900 913 892 704 368 52 130 -40 -115 20 43 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.4 33.6 34.2 34.7 36.1 38.4 41.3 44.8 48.4 52.1 55.6 58.7 LONG(DEG W) 20.1 19.9 19.7 19.3 18.8 16.7 13.4 9.3 5.6 2.1 0.3 2.1 4.2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 80/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 689 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -31 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -18. -23. -26. -31. -32. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 24. 29. 31. 32. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 7. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.61 SST (C) : Value: 23.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 54.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.25 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)