* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 35 41 46 50 49 46 39 27 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 35 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 12 15 14 20 26 34 32 37 40 51 48 SHEAR DIR 319 281 264 260 248 245 239 237 252 258 257 253 246 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.1 29.8 29.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 160 152 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 8 9 10 11 10 6 7 4 4 500-300 MB RH 28 30 32 32 27 26 25 28 29 37 32 39 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 0 0 0 2 0 12 -2 5 3 3 3 850 MB VORT 11 13 26 23 11 41 12 5 -25 -9 -27 -25 -25 LAND (KM) 174 166 156 129 102 15 -84 -260 -452 -435 -365 -242 -160 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.7 22.1 22.9 24.3 25.9 27.1 28.0 29.1 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.2 107.1 106.9 106.6 105.8 105.0 104.0 103.0 101.8 101.0 99.2 96.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 758 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -6. -12. -19. -27. -35. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 17. 13. 5. -6. -17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 16. 20. 19. 16. 9. -3. -17. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 30.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.08 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 3.56 Prob of RI= 19.5% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)