* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-TWO 10/09/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 39 41 42 43 44 44 42 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 39 41 42 43 44 44 42 37 SHEAR (KTS) 20 27 26 24 24 15 12 17 23 26 32 34 39 SHEAR DIR 19 44 41 34 30 1 286 247 244 266 254 254 235 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.5 24.9 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 132 133 132 127 125 124 120 114 110 106 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -52.0 -50.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 6 6 3 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 36 33 30 31 34 35 41 42 37 41 46 46 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -7 -2 -8 -1 -11 -11 -7 18 0 2 4 10 3 850 MB VORT -12 -24 -29 -7 -4 -26 -15 17 88 88 94 93 81 LAND (KM) 1253 1281 1178 1048 919 698 493 367 308 257 242 228 205 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.8 30.4 30.8 31.2 32.1 33.3 34.0 34.4 35.2 36.3 37.0 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 62.1 63.5 64.8 66.1 67.4 69.5 71.2 72.3 72.8 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.1 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 9 10 14 10 4 5 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 668 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -66 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 15. 13. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 7. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-TWO 10/09/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.46 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 102.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 62.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.19 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 3.21 Prob of RI= 3.7% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)