* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/09/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 28 30 32 33 34 33 34 33 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 28 30 32 33 34 33 34 33 SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 19 21 24 32 26 26 22 22 17 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 228 226 236 252 274 309 333 352 18 16 39 45 9999 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 154 155 155 155 154 154 152 151 148 134 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 N/A 500-300 MB RH 55 52 54 55 52 64 65 59 53 49 48 47 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 1 -2 0 -9 -2 -4 -6 -10 7 3 N/A 850 MB VORT -74 -70 -57 -47 -56 -61 -14 -12 -30 -45 -40 -29 N/A LAND (KM) 1038 1055 1078 1051 1019 999 1055 1004 968 985 1074 1223 1437 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.1 17.4 19.0 20.5 21.8 23.2 24.8 26.7 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 50.8 51.4 52.0 52.7 53.3 54.7 55.7 56.4 57.2 57.8 58.0 58.0 57.6 HEAT CONTENT 65 71 78 79 81 83 79 63 55 53 36 25 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 494 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 10. 10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 8. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/09/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 4.06 Prob of RI= 12.4% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)