* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 10/09/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 46 47 50 52 53 54 54 52 50 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 46 47 50 36 38 36 30 30 32 SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 17 17 18 23 25 27 20 22 29 22 45 SHEAR DIR 308 303 305 309 314 320 296 273 245 202 183 219 266 SST (C) 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.1 22.8 21.7 19.6 18.6 18.5 17.4 14.5 12.8 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 101 100 99 98 96 91 83 80 80 78 73 71 70 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.2 -56.3 -56.6 -56.5 -57.0 -57.5 -56.1 -55.2 -55.5 -54.2 -54.9 -58.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 39 39 39 34 36 51 66 58 58 57 58 59 67 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -2 -5 -13 -18 -26 -10 22 7 -1 27 -4 -42 850 MB VORT 136 118 93 71 60 72 101 112 90 98 86 31 -80 LAND (KM) 891 890 892 834 770 487 139 -107 125 41 -74 -90 210 LAT (DEG N) 33.2 33.6 34.0 34.7 35.3 37.0 39.6 42.7 46.3 50.2 53.9 57.2 59.6 LONG(DEG W) 20.0 19.6 19.1 18.2 17.2 14.4 10.7 7.1 3.5 0.6 1.5 3.9 8.0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 0 0 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 60/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 651 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -43 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -9. -14. -19. -24. -27. -32. -34. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 25. 30. 32. 33. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/09/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 23.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 53.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.24 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)