* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/09/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 31 36 40 38 33 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 14 16 17 19 29 37 48 50 44 52 47 N/A SHEAR DIR 253 257 261 253 247 241 235 234 238 248 241 241 9999 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.3 29.9 29.1 27.3 25.7 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 158 140 123 126 125 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 8 10 8 12 5 5 1 3 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 32 32 30 28 27 23 26 28 41 46 39 32 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 0 5 2 0 2 18 17 19 -7 10 N/A 850 MB VORT 19 23 20 10 37 35 -5 -40 -41 -33 -27 -35 N/A LAND (KM) 153 136 118 41 -37 -265 -401 -286 -230 -222 -290 -277 -357 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.4 22.7 23.6 25.1 27.1 29.3 31.1 32.4 32.9 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.0 106.8 106.1 105.4 103.4 101.7 100.3 98.8 96.2 93.0 89.4 85.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 813 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -7 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 31. 30. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -7. -17. -26. -36. -45. -53. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 9. 7. 0. -10. -24. -38. -49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 10. 8. 3. -7. -19. -35. -48. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/09/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.13 SST (C) : Value: 30.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.05 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 3.20 Prob of RI= 12.8% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)