* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * VINCE 10/09/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 46 47 48 49 50 52 52 50 48 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 46 47 35 34 30 30 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 17 16 14 21 21 23 22 27 27 24 17 22 19 SHEAR DIR 306 309 295 312 319 302 280 274 243 211 238 299 321 SST (C) 23.5 23.2 23.0 22.5 22.0 20.5 18.2 19.8 18.7 17.0 16.1 15.3 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 100 98 97 94 92 86 79 84 80 77 75 74 74 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.6 -55.7 -56.2 -56.2 -57.0 -56.8 -56.5 -56.6 -55.5 -58.5 -61.0 -61.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 41 36 33 38 46 61 63 64 57 62 58 54 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -9 -13 -29 -46 -25 10 0 11 38 5 -28 -25 850 MB VORT 85 61 56 37 49 71 82 64 71 93 -5 -81 -97 LAND (KM) 889 851 802 681 535 173 -109 16 -81 -19 -82 -38 -30 LAT (DEG N) 33.8 34.3 34.8 35.5 36.2 38.4 41.0 43.7 46.5 49.5 51.9 52.7 52.3 LONG(DEG W) 19.3 18.5 17.7 16.3 14.8 11.1 7.3 3.4 0.2 1.6 2.7 3.5 3.7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 0 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 686 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -25. -28. -33. -35. -36. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 22. 27. 30. 31. 30. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 17. 22. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) VINCE 10/09/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.62 SST (C) : Value: 22.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 51.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.22 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)