* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/09/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 18 20 24 30 34 40 48 55 57 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 18 20 24 30 34 40 48 55 57 SHEAR (KTS) 17 19 26 32 32 22 20 14 10 5 1 7 15 SHEAR DIR 249 261 278 300 320 339 348 7 359 157 290 243 255 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.7 27.7 26.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 160 162 164 165 165 165 159 152 138 126 118 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 500-300 MB RH 56 58 56 60 67 71 74 70 60 52 44 41 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 -11 -18 8 0 1 4 10 8 18 10 -1 850 MB VORT -60 -48 -56 -59 -31 9 19 42 60 108 136 149 140 LAND (KM) 954 886 824 771 733 759 564 480 603 860 1138 1260 1106 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.9 17.3 19.1 21.1 23.4 26.0 28.6 31.3 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 53.1 54.0 54.8 55.8 56.7 58.6 60.4 62.2 63.5 63.9 64.1 63.3 61.3 HEAT CONTENT 78 81 90 91 84 91 82 70 46 33 14 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 735 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 24 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 0. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 8. 12. 20. 28. 35. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 10. 14. 20. 28. 35. 37. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/09/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.88 Scaled RI index= 4.20 Prob of RI= 14.2% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)