* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-TWO 10/09/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 40 42 44 45 45 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 40 42 44 45 45 44 SHEAR (KTS) 24 25 23 22 20 26 30 30 21 24 15 14 4 SHEAR DIR 27 15 5 352 339 317 304 298 294 292 289 278 301 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 135 135 134 133 135 138 145 151 157 160 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -51.4 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 35 38 41 41 45 44 47 37 30 27 29 27 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) -10 -7 -14 -8 -9 0 2 -18 -9 -19 -12 -7 -1 850 MB VORT 0 8 -1 -7 8 15 46 63 97 78 68 32 27 LAND (KM) 1197 1068 940 832 727 571 490 522 631 763 741 589 499 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.2 30.5 30.8 31.0 31.3 31.5 31.0 30.0 28.4 26.7 25.1 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 65.0 66.4 67.7 68.9 70.1 72.0 73.0 73.2 72.9 72.5 71.8 70.8 69.7 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 12 13 11 12 16 18 18 21 32 40 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 585 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -12 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-TWO 10/09/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.49 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.33 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.04 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 3.23 Prob of RI= 3.7% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)