* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * VINCE 10/09/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 62 62 61 58 56 52 48 44 40 36 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 62 62 61 58 56 52 35 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 22 23 23 30 47 45 41 29 26 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 304 310 319 303 250 228 221 218 237 287 9999 9999 SST (C) 23.3 23.0 22.8 22.2 21.7 20.2 18.3 19.1 18.5 18.3 17.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 97 96 93 91 85 79 82 80 79 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.7 -56.1 -56.2 -56.8 -55.7 -54.3 -54.2 -55.7 -58.0 -60.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 33 30 37 45 56 55 55 57 65 65 57 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -12 -20 -33 -41 -31 30 13 10 -7 20 -35 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 75 59 45 75 80 91 99 101 51 0 -67 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 881 821 765 629 508 282 26 127 108 -142 -117 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 34.7 35.2 36.3 37.4 40.5 42.9 44.8 46.3 47.3 48.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 18.9 18.0 17.1 15.9 14.7 12.2 9.4 6.5 3.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 813 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -7 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -26. -33. -38. -45. -48. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 22. 25. 25. 22. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 15. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) VINCE 10/09/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.54 SST (C) : Value: 22.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 35.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.07 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)