* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/09/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 18 21 25 32 36 42 50 56 57 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 18 21 25 32 36 42 50 56 57 SHEAR (KTS) 22 24 25 29 27 18 20 11 8 9 14 20 17 SHEAR DIR 284 293 302 318 333 339 354 349 307 265 258 250 235 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.6 27.3 26.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 162 164 165 165 165 164 157 151 133 123 119 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.9 -54.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -52.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 6 7 500-300 MB RH 53 57 61 65 65 71 72 67 64 59 57 57 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -17 -19 -2 -10 -2 5 -1 7 22 24 13 -3 850 MB VORT -55 -62 -64 -47 -36 -14 3 12 58 110 160 143 176 LAND (KM) 845 790 744 719 711 667 509 510 720 1003 1284 1320 1061 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.4 17.8 19.4 21.6 24.1 26.7 29.4 31.8 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 54.3 55.2 56.0 56.9 57.8 59.4 61.0 62.3 62.5 61.9 61.8 62.2 62.2 HEAT CONTENT 85 92 90 83 86 94 79 69 43 30 8 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 790 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 38 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 18. 23. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -2. 0. 5. 10. 14. 22. 30. 36. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 5. 12. 16. 22. 30. 36. 37. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/09/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 142.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 4.06 Prob of RI= 12.5% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)