* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * VINCE 10/10/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 48 46 44 42 41 39 39 39 38 37 V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 48 46 33 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 21 21 20 25 17 25 28 34 26 18 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 322 292 294 293 258 232 230 241 311 18 9999 9999 SST (C) 22.9 22.3 21.8 21.3 20.1 19.0 19.9 19.8 19.4 19.1 18.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 93 91 89 84 81 84 84 82 82 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.5 -56.8 -56.9 -56.6 -57.0 -56.8 -56.6 -57.2 -59.0 -60.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 35 45 50 57 54 47 58 66 69 56 53 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -30 -32 -35 -16 7 9 13 7 13 -4 -24 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 41 62 75 87 81 62 14 37 49 -15 -80 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 751 626 465 297 106 -200 -124 -93 -69 -54 -69 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.6 36.6 37.7 38.7 40.6 42.4 43.8 44.9 45.6 46.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 17.2 15.7 14.1 12.3 10.4 6.3 2.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 70/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 822 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -19. -25. -31. -35. -41. -43. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 23. 26. 25. 23. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. 21. 24. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. -24. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. -17. -18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. -17. -18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) VINCE 10/10/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.54 SST (C) : Value: 21.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 35.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.08 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)