* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/10/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 44 52 58 63 66 65 61 56 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 44 52 58 63 66 65 61 56 SHEAR (KTS) 23 20 19 17 15 16 17 26 24 33 31 35 43 SHEAR DIR 318 314 315 319 313 278 244 241 251 244 248 240 246 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.8 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 160 155 149 139 127 123 122 122 121 120 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 6 7 7 500-300 MB RH 76 74 76 75 76 71 70 69 63 55 44 41 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 10 26 16 15 3 4 5 11 5 -8 10 3 850 MB VORT 43 72 71 66 78 95 125 130 121 125 124 116 66 LAND (KM) 35 86 187 293 405 680 956 1182 1209 1129 1056 1041 1014 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 19.0 19.9 21.0 22.0 24.5 27.0 29.0 30.6 31.7 32.4 33.0 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 65.5 65.3 65.0 65.0 64.9 64.7 64.5 64.1 64.3 64.6 65.1 65.0 64.4 HEAT CONTENT 95 90 71 66 61 38 24 12 8 6 6 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 70/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 471 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 75 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 11. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 29. 36. 42. 46. 46. 43. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 32. 38. 43. 46. 45. 41. 36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/10/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 142.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.89 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 5.31 Prob of RI= 47.3% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)