* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/10/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 43 51 56 59 61 62 59 55 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 43 51 56 59 61 62 59 55 SHEAR (KTS) 21 19 16 17 16 19 17 25 19 26 23 31 38 SHEAR DIR 318 318 328 308 285 263 241 259 254 263 257 250 241 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 162 157 152 146 134 126 123 122 121 119 116 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 5 500-300 MB RH 74 78 76 75 72 69 65 59 57 56 48 49 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 15 9 15 4 1 4 16 10 8 2 -9 7 850 MB VORT 77 80 71 74 78 80 125 111 117 110 113 101 125 LAND (KM) 45 146 252 389 527 793 1041 1203 1190 1103 1043 951 800 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.8 20.7 22.0 23.2 25.6 27.8 29.3 30.8 31.9 33.2 34.5 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.6 65.4 65.4 65.3 65.2 64.7 64.4 64.4 64.8 64.9 64.5 63.3 HEAT CONTENT 85 67 60 49 40 25 12 5 3 2 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 600 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 88 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 28. 34. 39. 42. 43. 41. 37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 36. 39. 41. 42. 39. 35. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/10/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.62 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 5.10 Prob of RI= 40.0% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)