* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-TWO 10/11/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 20 15 15 20 28 34 42 38 43 48 60 60 54 SHEAR DIR 320 306 288 286 283 295 284 285 272 259 251 256 254 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.1 23.5 23.1 22.2 20.2 15.4 13.4 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 117 114 110 104 100 98 93 85 74 72 70 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -50.3 -49.7 -49.0 -49.9 -50.8 -52.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 45 53 56 54 55 51 51 45 40 42 47 57 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) -9 2 6 9 7 10 -2 1 -5 2 34 25 9 850 MB VORT -24 -19 0 8 31 -7 -24 -19 -33 -13 -32 -65 -35 LAND (KM) 469 389 320 312 283 248 211 199 184 118 189 29 65 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 35.1 35.9 36.5 37.1 37.8 38.1 38.4 39.2 40.5 42.4 45.2 48.6 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 71.7 72.3 72.3 72.3 72.3 72.6 72.5 72.0 70.7 68.2 65.3 62.9 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 747 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 24. 25. 28. 30. 29. 25. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. -1. -8. -14. -19. -26. -33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -3. -10. -16. -20. -27. -35. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-TWO 10/11/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 25.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.24 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 86.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.55 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.92 Scaled RI index= 3.63 Prob of RI= 7.3% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)