* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/11/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 50 58 66 71 75 78 79 75 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 50 58 66 71 75 78 79 75 SHEAR (KTS) 18 16 10 13 13 8 9 8 15 12 17 19 30 SHEAR DIR 332 340 321 285 282 261 232 218 206 226 204 232 239 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 162 159 154 151 146 142 137 131 123 115 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 500-300 MB RH 77 72 71 69 66 60 53 52 49 44 39 37 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 2 2 -4 0 7 5 0 -3 -2 -7 -2 -10 850 MB VORT 79 75 82 103 103 105 129 137 158 154 163 127 110 LAND (KM) 6 65 132 212 294 469 608 710 808 916 1120 1320 1357 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.3 22.1 23.8 25.0 25.9 26.6 27.3 28.5 30.0 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 68.7 68.7 68.7 68.7 68.8 68.4 68.2 67.4 66.4 64.5 62.7 60.3 HEAT CONTENT 85 80 77 71 57 49 44 38 24 14 9 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 705 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 33. 42. 47. 51. 54. 55. 52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 33. 41. 46. 50. 53. 54. 50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/11/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 138.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.06 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 4.83 Prob of RI= 30.8% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)