* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/13/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 33 37 40 42 41 39 36 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 33 37 40 42 41 39 36 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 13 13 12 10 11 18 21 23 27 30 24 SHEAR DIR 90 83 98 119 137 161 182 209 221 222 228 239 255 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.4 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 150 151 152 151 149 150 150 147 146 151 165 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 500-300 MB RH 39 37 39 40 39 43 35 37 36 35 28 30 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 8 7 -3 -1 4 2 850 MB VORT 17 9 9 -1 -6 -22 -21 -16 -32 -35 -56 -52 -48 LAND (KM) 605 589 572 565 558 587 626 597 536 428 340 243 45 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.5 13.4 14.9 16.7 18.7 20.8 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.5 100.7 100.9 101.2 101.5 102.6 104.1 105.7 107.0 107.9 108.4 108.0 106.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 654 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -31 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 16. 14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 21. 19. 16. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/13/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.31 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.26 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.14 Scaled RI index= 3.37 Prob of RI= 15.9% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)