* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/14/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 30 32 32 33 35 36 35 32 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 30 32 32 33 35 36 35 32 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 16 14 11 13 16 16 12 14 13 13 20 SHEAR DIR 83 92 108 117 124 152 171 194 206 188 189 206 262 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 145 145 141 138 137 136 135 137 133 135 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 38 40 43 42 43 43 35 34 27 21 13 11 9 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 -7 -4 0 0 4 9 1 2 0 3 0 850 MB VORT 4 1 -5 -12 -16 -30 -28 -42 -45 -50 -45 -27 -11 LAND (KM) 668 655 643 672 699 845 964 1023 1063 1132 1305 1588 1980 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.5 10.3 9.3 8.7 8.6 8.7 8.5 7.7 6.3 4.4 LONG(DEG W) 100.5 100.5 100.4 100.6 100.8 101.8 103.1 104.2 105.3 106.6 108.6 111.3 114.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 648 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -51 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 7. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/14/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.19 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.69 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.15 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 3.26 Prob of RI= 13.9% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)