* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * INVEST 10/14/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 26 28 30 32 34 35 34 34 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 26 28 30 32 34 35 34 34 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 13 14 17 13 16 18 18 16 14 14 13 SHEAR DIR 114 128 129 146 163 180 189 194 198 199 208 206 219 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 148 148 145 146 150 150 148 144 141 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 8 500-300 MB RH 43 41 42 45 42 41 42 38 35 26 23 21 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 -3 -5 -1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT -24 -29 -37 -37 -33 -25 -27 -28 -35 -53 -64 -59 -41 LAND (KM) 615 616 617 644 672 724 697 607 551 498 492 504 490 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.2 12.0 13.3 14.5 15.7 16.6 17.2 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.5 100.8 101.0 101.5 102.0 103.4 104.7 105.7 106.7 107.7 108.6 109.2 109.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 585 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -32 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/14/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.20 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.41 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)