* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * 10/14/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 52 60 67 71 73 71 68 65 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 52 60 67 71 73 71 68 65 SHEAR (KTS) 7 2 0 6 6 11 9 14 11 15 13 19 19 SHEAR DIR 30 61 331 304 300 276 286 286 305 273 283 269 273 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 162 162 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 10 500-300 MB RH 44 40 40 43 42 43 43 39 35 32 30 34 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 1 -3 0 850 MB VORT 41 42 33 32 42 47 27 24 16 5 -3 -10 -15 LAND (KM) 19 31 44 84 133 175 152 164 220 267 286 288 247 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.3 20.0 19.7 19.4 19.2 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 77.0 77.5 77.9 78.4 78.9 79.6 80.0 80.4 81.1 82.1 83.2 84.2 85.1 HEAT CONTENT 110 108 113 116 119 116 112 109 100 95 103 104 97 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 592 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 35. 39. 41. 40. 39. 37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 17. 27. 35. 42. 46. 48. 46. 43. 40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 10/14/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 5.04 Prob of RI= 38.2% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)