* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * 10/14/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 36 39 40 39 37 34 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 36 39 40 39 37 34 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 12 15 13 15 17 18 17 19 19 18 16 SHEAR DIR 103 102 127 149 161 188 203 220 227 215 225 233 227 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.3 27.9 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 148 146 145 147 150 146 139 135 133 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 6 500-300 MB RH 41 42 44 45 44 44 40 36 31 27 25 23 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 1 0 0 -3 1 1 0 0 -6 2 850 MB VORT -19 -31 -33 -30 -22 -21 -19 -20 -41 -57 -79 -59 -33 LAND (KM) 637 642 647 676 706 731 675 624 570 582 543 446 353 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.6 12.6 13.9 15.4 16.8 18.1 19.1 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.5 101.9 102.5 103.0 104.4 105.7 107.0 108.4 109.8 111.0 111.4 111.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 590 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -28 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 12. 10. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 14. 12. 9. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 10/14/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.40 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.41 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.19 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 3.30 Prob of RI= 14.8% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)