* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * 10/15/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 40 44 53 61 67 72 74 71 66 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 30 38 46 53 57 59 57 52 50 SHEAR (KTS) 3 5 8 8 8 14 8 11 7 12 15 18 22 SHEAR DIR 14 338 335 332 307 319 281 306 263 263 247 250 249 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 164 165 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 12 10 11 9 11 500-300 MB RH 41 39 41 41 45 50 48 47 41 41 38 42 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 3 2 1 0 2 1 0 -1 -3 1 3 850 MB VORT 53 41 31 32 44 20 32 15 27 20 9 0 19 LAND (KM) 11 4 -27 -19 0 75 100 76 105 211 280 132 33 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.3 18.5 19.0 19.3 18.8 18.2 17.6 17.0 16.5 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 76.9 77.2 77.6 77.9 78.4 78.5 78.7 79.3 80.2 81.6 83.2 85.0 HEAT CONTENT 118 116 9999 108 113 117 114 121 120 108 107 95 97 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 561 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 26. 32. 37. 40. 39. 37. 36. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 19. 28. 36. 42. 47. 49. 46. 41. 39. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 10/15/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.93 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 6.00 Prob of RI= 70.2% is 5.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)