* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/15/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 34 36 38 41 43 45 45 44 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 34 36 38 41 43 45 45 44 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 17 18 19 20 16 14 13 11 12 11 13 SHEAR DIR 106 123 141 147 154 181 189 200 202 199 194 212 213 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 146 145 144 146 147 148 147 147 145 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 500-300 MB RH 43 46 47 44 44 44 34 29 25 23 20 22 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 850 MB VORT -37 -42 -41 -34 -31 -32 -33 -32 -40 -42 -48 -50 -44 LAND (KM) 646 663 680 703 725 750 726 738 778 869 1023 1230 1402 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.4 12.0 12.5 13.1 13.2 13.0 12.4 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.7 102.2 102.7 103.2 104.4 105.5 106.7 108.3 110.0 111.9 113.9 116.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 610 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -53 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/15/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.11 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.46 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.14 Scaled RI index= 3.30 Prob of RI= 14.7% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)