* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 58 66 71 76 76 77 77 V (KT) LAND 25 24 31 35 39 48 57 64 70 74 65 41 31 SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 7 7 9 6 12 9 7 6 10 2 8 SHEAR DIR 267 313 321 288 303 318 294 318 259 284 233 234 184 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 162 164 160 151 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 13 12 11 11 11 11 9 11 9 10 8 500-300 MB RH 42 42 46 50 51 50 50 48 49 50 49 49 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 850 MB VORT 57 43 43 61 48 42 50 40 60 44 49 58 59 LAND (KM) 15 3 27 21 67 147 180 267 289 151 -8 -126 -140 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.7 18.4 17.8 17.1 16.3 15.4 14.7 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.1 77.6 78.1 78.5 78.9 79.6 80.0 80.8 81.6 82.7 84.0 85.5 87.1 HEAT CONTENT 116 108 113 119 124 120 113 110 108 70 94 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 559 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 32. 38. 44. 46. 49. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 33. 41. 47. 51. 51. 52. 52. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.78 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 5.32 Prob of RI= 47.5% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)