* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 35 37 39 42 45 48 48 46 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 35 37 39 42 45 48 48 46 SHEAR (KTS) 6 11 15 21 25 19 17 12 10 7 8 9 15 SHEAR DIR 106 130 141 150 167 173 172 170 177 143 141 146 166 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 146 146 145 143 142 141 141 141 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 500-300 MB RH 49 51 50 49 51 41 34 26 24 27 29 26 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 8 0 -3 3 4 0 1 4 -1 850 MB VORT -45 -44 -36 -27 -24 -26 -31 -26 -25 -18 -25 -25 -34 LAND (KM) 655 676 696 705 713 750 775 817 826 865 888 935 965 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.0 10.9 11.0 10.9 11.0 10.9 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 101.4 101.8 102.1 102.4 102.7 103.3 104.1 104.8 105.4 106.1 106.8 107.5 108.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 638 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -33 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 15. 15. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 18. 18. 16. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.09 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.31 Scaled RI index= 3.06 Prob of RI= 10.3% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)