* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/15/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 59 68 76 80 84 85 84 82 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 59 68 76 80 69 42 32 32 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 6 8 7 4 10 1 6 3 2 7 9 SHEAR DIR 296 318 292 305 330 269 314 145 274 200 246 140 124 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 162 164 164 160 148 143 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 10 11 10 11 9 10 8 9 6 500-300 MB RH 47 48 50 49 53 50 50 49 51 53 55 54 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 850 MB VORT 48 47 57 51 44 49 44 53 41 41 41 58 56 LAND (KM) 34 70 126 163 201 253 293 254 115 -32 -140 -143 9 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.3 17.6 16.7 15.7 14.8 14.0 13.2 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.0 79.5 79.9 80.2 80.7 81.0 81.6 82.4 83.5 84.8 86.1 87.4 HEAT CONTENT 116 122 118 115 111 109 109 101 40 9999 9999 9999 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 592 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 23. 30. 38. 44. 48. 50. 52. 51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 38. 46. 50. 54. 55. 54. 52. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/15/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.76 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 5.38 Prob of RI= 49.5% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)