* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/15/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 24 27 30 34 39 44 45 43 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 24 27 30 34 39 44 45 43 SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 20 25 22 15 13 14 12 9 8 11 15 SHEAR DIR 152 156 157 171 184 176 167 161 165 157 156 151 157 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 146 146 145 144 143 143 143 143 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 500-300 MB RH 49 46 44 44 43 36 34 26 32 28 28 27 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 8 9 3 -1 6 1 0 1 0 2 850 MB VORT -48 -37 -28 -21 -18 -29 -31 -33 -21 -21 -24 -31 -37 LAND (KM) 660 680 701 709 717 734 760 777 792 824 880 919 951 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.4 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 101.9 102.2 102.5 102.8 103.4 104.2 104.9 105.6 106.3 107.2 107.9 108.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 604 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -52 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 20. 18. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/15/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.71 Scaled RI index= 3.10 Prob of RI= 11.0% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)